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Hillary Clinton is going to lose: She doesn-t even see the frustrated progressive wave that will nominate Bernie Sanders 

In this photo taken May 20, 2015, Democratic Presidential candidate Sen// Bernie Sanders, I Vt//, poses for a portrait before an interview with The Associated Press in Washington// For Democrats who had hoped to lure Massachusetts Sen// Elizabeth Warren into a presidential campaign, independent Sen// Bernie Sanders might be the next best thing// Sanders, who is opening his official presidential campaign Tuesday in Burlington, Vermont, aims to ignite a grassroots fire among left leaning Democrats wary of Hillary Rodham Clinton// He is laying out an agenda in step with the party-s progressive wing and compatible with Warren-s platform reining in Wall Street banks, tackling college debt and creating a government financed infrastructure jobs program// Hillary Clinton went to New York-s Roosevelt Island earlier this month to relaunch her campaign for president// Her first kickoff fell flat, perhaps because she herself didn-t attend, opting instead to send a video greeting card in which people she still insists on calling everyday Americansshared their life plans// She came on at the end to say she had plans of her own that include being president, and that she does it all for us// She delivered a 45 minute speech that told us little more than that three minute video// She still won-t say where she-d peg the minimum wage or if she-d ever rein in the surveillance state or get us out of Iraq// Most amazing is how she finesses the Trans Pacific Partnership that President Obama so covets// It-s the biggest deal in the history of commerce; its investor tribunals would substitute corporate for democratic will here and around the world and Clinton hasn-t said boo about it// Some ask how she gets away with it// I-m not so sure she does// Politicians have always ducked tough issues, but today-s Democrats are the worst// When the TPP came before the House, enough Democrats played it cute to leave the outcome in doubt till the very end// Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi didn-t tip her hand until just before the vote// Many who voted no never said exactly why// Some want to curb currency manipulation// Some oppose the fast track process, others the secret tribunals or the intellectual property rules that actually restrain competition// If the caucus as a whole has a bottom line, no one knows what it is// The TPP is a mystery because our leaders wish it so// We don-t know what-s in it because our president won-t let us read it, and not out of respect for precedent or protocol// George W// Bush showed us drafts of his trade agreements// We-re negotiating one right now with Europe, and Europeans get to read those drafts// If a comma gets cut from the TPP, hundreds of corporate lobbyists know in an instant// The only people who don-t know are the American people and that-s only because our president thinks our knowing would ruin everything// The process by which Congress considers the TPP is confusing in itself// The pact is still being negotiated by the 12 nations who-d be parties to it// The fight now is over legislation meant to grease the skids for it when it finally arrives// At issue are trade promotion authority or TPA the fast track by which Congress vows not to amend or filibuster a trade agreement it hasn-t even read and trade adjustment assistance or TAA, which gives benefits (money, health insurance, job training) to workers who can prove to the federal government that they lost their jobs due to trade// Signed into law by John Kennedy, expanded by Bill Clinton and extended by George W// Bush, the half century old program is set to expire in September// The bills now before Congress would keep it alive another six years// Back in May the Senate approved a bill that included both TAA and TPA// On June 12, the House voted on both, but in separate bills under a rule requiring passage of each in order to send either to the Senate// The rule was alternatively described as an attempt to mirror the Senate bill, or a strategy to gain House passage, there being different majorities there for each provision// As a strategy for passage it was a dud// When fast track passed by eight votes (219 to 211), Democrats reversed field and bailed on the TAA just to derail the whole process// The press called the June 12 votes a huge win for labor and a *humiliating defeat* for Obama// Reading such stories one might think fast track or even the TPP itself had suffered a crushing blow// Some on the left even called it historic// Paul Krugman wrote, *House Democrats shocked almost everyone by rejecting key provisions needed to complete the Trans Pacific Partnership//* To Krugman it seemed a watershed: *Ever since Ronald Reagan-s election in 1980, Democrats have been on the ideological defensive// Even when they won elections they seemed afraid to endorse clearly progressive positions… But that era appears to be over//* I wouldn-t pop any corks quite yet// For the first time ever Congress hit the pause button on globalization, but that-s all it did// House Dems didn-t suddenly lurch left: they just did what they always do// In 1993 they voted no on NAFTA// In 2002 they voted against the Iraq War// In 2010 they passed an Obamacare bill with a public option// But they can-t ignore their president or their donors forever// In 2008 they resisted Bush-s bailout but finally gave in to Obama and Wall Street// Republicans held firm, thus setting in motion the Tea Party and the sad, sorry debacle of 2010// On Thursday the Republicans did what any fool could have predicted: they passed a new rule and sent the TPA to the Senate sans worker assistance// We don-t know what will happen next, but we do know fast track has already passed both houses of Congress once// In the end, Obama, Boehner, McConnell and their global capital partners will likely get their way, but June 12 may yet prove historic// In 2008 House Republicans lost the bailout battle but planted the seeds of a grass-roots movement that would win wars// Progressives should examine the precedent// Krugman-s right: there-s a rumbling out there, but most Democrats are a long way from hearing it, let alone joining in// If House Dems stand firm, they too may plant the seeds of a grass roots movement// Much of their party will resist// Every political party is really many parties// The Democrats- presidential, Senate, governors and donors parties all line up with global capital// Even in the House, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer is a staunch free trader and Pelosi herself spent the week before the vote quietly imploring her caucus to swallow the poison pill// No one knows where scores of Democrats really stand// Both parties are caught in a crossfire between their donors and their base// Republican voters are suspicious of the TPP and hate fast track, mostly because they hate Obama// Democratic voters hate fast track but accept the TPP, mostly because they love Obama// Republicans in Congress are civil because they can-t bash Democrats for doing what their base wishes they would do// Democrats in Congress are quiet because they don-t want their donors to think they mean what they say and don-t know when someone may offer them something to take one for the team by switching sides// It-s hard to follow the bouncing ball when the topic-s so opaque, the bill-s locked up like a nuclear code and everyone-s lying or speaking in such empty phrases that they may as well be lying// The press isn-t helping// When all coverage is about motives, message or strategy, it-s easier for politicians to hide their views// This week I told two liberal friends that Pelosi is trying to find *a path to yes on fast track//* (Her words) Both said Pelosi and Clinton had broken with Obama, are moving left and now oppose the deal// In terms of strategy and message it was true all except the part about Clinton and Pelosi opposing the deal// No one plays the game better than Hillary Clinton, the Harry Houdini of syntax// The question is whether it-s a winning game, and if so for whom// It isn-t a winning game for progressives// We only win when debate is specific, honest and brave// The TPP debate is like those we have every day over government// The more abstract the terms, the harder it is for us to win// If we find ourselves debating government or bureaucracy, we lose// If we talk Medicare or Social Security, we win// We even win on foreign aid but only when armed with the facts// It-s the same with the TPP// Everyone wants more -global cooperationbut no one wants to let Big Pharma stamp out generic drugs or let Big Tobacco tell us how they-ll label their products// And no one wants some secretive global tribunal telling a state legislature how to govern// If there-s an easier case to make, I-ve never seen it// You may ask why every Democrat in Congress doesn-t make it, but we-ve gone over that// Whether they-re in thrall to their donors, their consultants, their leaders or their ambitions, whoever or whatever holds them back, they just can-t do it//